Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Generic Congressional Vote

The latest generic numbers over at RCP are linked to below. This is very bad news for Democrats based on historical data, since 1950 they have polled the question and Republicans have NEVER led by this many. The big news is not only the spread but what the trend means as we get closer to the midterms. It's just simple math, the Democrats have many more seats to defend and 25 of them reside in districts that have R+ numbers over 7 (PVI). Republicans need 40 to switch the House, you figure they may get all 25 of these. The balance of control will be in the swing districts and this is why the overall generic number is bad news for Democrats. In the months to come it will be interesting to see how this advantage in the generic translates to electoral results since we have not seen this type of lead. We very well could be on the cusp of a historical turnover in the House and more Republicans in the Congress since the 1920's. Three months is a lifetime in an election cycle but if Democrats and the tone deaf Obama administration continue on this course Ms. Pelosi will become Minority Leader....and who wouldn't enjoy that?

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - Generic Congressional Vote


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